Talk:Tips (Grand Prix Story 2)/@comment-41.153.114.40-20170904093305/@comment-33048824-20170908155256
Comparing a "Ten Treasure Raffle" with "One Premium Raffle" isn't fair. One should never pay 400GP on "One Premium Raffle" if they desire efficient results. Unless of course... They get lucky. The chance of getting a rare item out of each Ten Treasure Raffle is nowhere near +90%. You probably got way too lucky to believe that getting a rare item is "almost guaranteed". Let's talk numbers. 1 Ten Premium Raffle costs as much as 8 Ten Treasure Raffles so it's only fair to compare. There are a total of 15 possible items in each raffle. In a treasure raffle, 1 of out of 15 is rare. In a Premium Raffle, 8 out of 15 are rare. As a result, your chances are as follows: Using hypergeometric distribution: Ten Treasure Raffle: 66.67% chance to get a rare item. One Premium Raffle: 53.34% chance to get a rare item. Ten Premium Raffle: 100% chance to get at least 3 rare items. 98.1% to get at least 4 rare items. 81.8% to get at least 5 rare items. 42.6% to get at least 6 rare items. 10% to get at least 7 rare items. 0.6% to get all 8 rare items. Using binomial distribution: 8 Ten Treasure Raffles: 99.9% chance to get at least 1 rare item. 99.7% to get at least 2 rare items. 98.1% to get at least 3 rare items. 91.5% to get at least 4 rare items. 74.8% to get at least 5 rare items. 47.6% to get at least 6 rare items. 20% to get at least 7 rare items. 4% to get a rare item in all trials. In short, the chances are very similar, with the 8 Ten Treasure Raffles giving you better chances for the jackpot at the cost of being more random. It's still a little subjective whether 8 "Ten Treasure Raffle" pulls are more rewarding over a single "Ten Premium Raffle"; since it' ultimately depends on what you actually need'; as getting a rare vehicle/part means nothing if you're not going to use it in the first place. However, I strongly believe that paying for a Ten Treasure Raffle using 427GP might really be the best way to spend GP in raffles for multiple reasons. Firstly, if you ever got lucky enough to get an S Rank vehicle, you are probably going to need to get even more lucky to get a duplicate for an upgrade to outperform a Grade IV B Rank vehicle which you can get absolutely free of GP. The chances of this happening are close to none unless you are spending tens of thousands of GP to get the ultimate Graded S Rank vehicle. Secondly, the 8 Ten Treasure Raffles will give you 72-80 common items beside the rare parts, some of which have unique modifiers that you can't get out of the raffle and come pre-upgraded. Meanwhile, the Ten Prime Raffle will give you only 2-7 common items beside the rare stuff, not to mention that those common items are far less useful than the Treasure Raffle's common items mainly because terrible cars have no use but to get sold for an almost non-existent amount of money. Finally, contrary to the Premium Raffle rare rewards, rare parts are very valuable during end-game. They outperform even the highest graded parts for good reasons. They can also come highly upgraded, possibly even fully upgraded! Tl;dr: 8 Ten Treasure Raffles cost as much as one Ten Premium Raffle. Both have similar rare item gain chances. Premium rare items might be lacking in comparison during end-game. Premium common items can't be gained in similar huge quantities and generally have no use. I'm posting the probabilities and most of what I said here in the page. Comments like these help in bringing new ideas in developing the wiki. :3